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MLR - Premarket Pulse December 21, 2012

Index futures are taking a pounding this morning after the Republican-led House rejected Speaker Boehner's "Plan B" proposal, bringing into play once again the extreme news-driven character of this current market environment. Anticipation of a Fiscal Cliff resolution has likely been the driver of this current rally, and as that becomes less certain, the market's reaction is back to the downside. This confirms our view that even if one seeks to play the market's uptrend by going long individual stocks one must do so in measured fashion.

As the futures come off, gold and silver find a bid this morning as their status as safe-haven plays comes back into focus. The precious metals, however, are in a severely compromised technical position after both the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) and iShares Silver Trust (SLV) both gapped down below their 200-day moving aveages. Even though they might bounce here in a safe-haven reaction after getting quite oversold yesterday, they still are nowhere near a buyable technical position. It will require some time for the GLD and SLV to rebuild and set-up again within their chart patterns if they are to have any hope of further upside going out into the future.

Michael Kors Holdings (KORS) flashed a pocket pivot yesterday after pulling back to its 50-day moving average. This helps to correct the v-shaped nature of the prior pocket pivot move of this past Tuesday. Today's pre-open action in the futures places any potential long idea in question, however, at the current time.

Apple (AAPL) still remains in play as a short-sale target, as it has not been able to rally with the market over the past month, and now has resistance at the 10-day moving average at around the 533-534 price level. We would look to get aggressive on the short side of AAPL if the stock decisively breaches the neckline in iits current head and shoulders formation, currently around the $500 price level.

Regardless of what side of the market one seeks to play, the environment is likely to remain volatile as the back-and-forth regarding the Fiscal Cliff begins to accelerate as we move into year-end. But we have considered that the weakness in precious metals as well as other commodities may be presaging a walk over the Fiscal Cliff, and so the anticipation of a Fiscal Cliff settlement that has helped to drive the current rally may begin to wane as it is this morning, based on the futures action.

This information is provided by MoKa Investors, LLC DBA Virtue of Selfish Investing (VoSI) is issued solely for informational purposes and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. Information contained herein is based on sources which we believe to be reliable but is not guaranteed by us as being accurate and does not purport to be a complete statement or summary of available data. VoSI reports are intended to alert VoSI members to technical developments in certain securities that may or may not be actionable, only, and are not intended as recommendations. Past performance is not a guarantee, nor is it necessarily indicative, of future results. Opinions expressed herein are statements of our judgment as of the publication date and are subject to change without notice. Entities including but not limited to VoSI, its members, officers, directors, employees, customers, agents, and affiliates may have a position, long or short, in the securities referred to herein, and/or other related securities, and may increase or decrease such position or take a contra position. Additional information is available upon written request. This publication is for clients of Virtue of Selfish Investing. Reproduction without written permission is strictly prohibited and will be prosecuted to the full extent of the law. ©2024 MoKa Investors, LLC DBA Virtue of Selfish Investing. All rights reserved.
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