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MLR - Premarket Pulse February 14, 2013

Futures are down this morning on weak GDP numbers coming out of Europe and Japan, continued worries over a currency war, and Cisco Systems' (CSCO) CEO John Chambers less-than-upbeat tone that was interpreted as being less bullish about the economy. Given that the market has shrugged off most "excuses" for selling off, it will be interesting to see how the tape plays out today, although some minor churning around the peak has been evident in the major market indexes over the past few days. The market has had a nice run-up so far in 2013, and investors have resisted the urge to take profits as pullbacks have been met by buyers looking for a way into this uptrend. We will be attuned to any change in this pattern, but a short-term correction of 3-5% would not be abnormal at this stage of the rally. Bottom line: watch your stocks and stick to your selling guides!

One factor that might argue in favor of a correction is sentiment, which is decidedly bullish. Numerous strategists and wanna-be strategists such as Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein have stated that we are on the verge of a "new bull market," a statement that is never heard at the start of true "new" bull markets and which is interesting on its face given that the market has been in a bull phase since 2009. However, since we operate on the basis of price/volume action alone, we remain focused on this aspect on the market with things like sentiment serving as secondary or lessor indicators.

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