The market continues to show little willingness to follow-through to the upside or the downside as it remains mired in a sideways range that has formed throughout March. Thus while the market came in like a lion in March with a big gap-up follow-through day on March 5th, it is going out like the proverbial lamb as the action has remained relatively quiet throughout the month. The NASDAQ was up on light volume while the NYSE-based indexes were down slightly with volume up, but not enough to qualify as a distribution day. Given that the indexes had sold off harder in the morning yesterday and closed in the upper part of their ranges, the high-volume and close up off the lows in the S&P 500 and the Dow could be viewed more as accumulation. With the futures up slightly this morning, the market looks like it wants to make an attempt at all-time highs for the S&P 500, but we would look for a quiet trading session going into the long Easter holiday weekend. For the most part, issues in Europe, including Cyprus and now Italy, have served to put a lid on the uptrend while on the other hand continued QE has kept a strong bid in this market on any sell-offs. How long this pattern continues is anyone's guess, but as we move into the second quarter investors can look forward to a potential resolution to market's current sideways consolidation.
The precious metals look like they are trying to put in a low here, but we await more definitive evidence in this regard. We did note that the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) shook out below its recent lows just above the 27 level on volume that qualified as a pocket pivot volume signature, but the SLV is otherwise not in the correct position for a "bottom-fishing" type of pocket pivot given that it closed below its 10-day moving average. The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) has come up off of its lows in March, forming a potentially constructive pattern that includes one bottom-fishing pocket pivot move two weeks ago, and as it moves along its 10-day moving average we are looking for some upside follow-through in the form of a second pocket pivot. Should anything become actionable in the precious metals, members should watch out for an email alert if and as anything material occurs.