As mentioned in a prior report, BTC was holding its own relative to stocks which were in crash mode. Instead, BTC was not crashing out but instead gaining support, trading as it has during prior corrections as shown in the chart below.
Today, it will put in enough volume for a pocket pivot. Based on the daily 24/7 trade, its 24 hour trading day resets at 8 pm ET, so there's still 9 hours left in its trading day. Global liquidity has also been surging as represented by the yellow line. This suggests MSTR and GBTC are actionable as well since they correlate highly with BTC. Global liquidity levels rose by a whopping US$1.49 tr last week Apr 1-4. Two-thirds of this increase can be attributed to the slide in the US dollar. Year-to-date global liquidity is up US$5.3tr and has surpassed the previous all-time high of US$175.8tr recorded last September. The factors that held liquidity growth in check last year – weak Central Bank liquidity and a strong US dollar – reversed in Q1. Liquidity impacts risk asset markets and cryptocurrencies with a delay of up to 3 months. The Q1 liquidity upturn should help BTC (and stocks) recover in Q2.
As for tariffs, the BTC market may have priced in much of the shock or even start to become a safety trade. As negotiations ensue, this could be bullish for BTC. Of course, the US-China trade war could always escalate further, so keep stops tight.
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