NVDA pocket pivot likely but it reports earnings after the close. Polymarket has frequently proven more accurate than traditional analysts and pundits in recent years, especially on high-profile, politically charged, or fast-moving events where crowd wisdom and real-money incentives outperform expert forecasts. Traders risk capital, creating strong incentives to be right (unlike pundits or analysts who risk only reputation).
Polymarket's strong odds favoring a higher NVDA price after earnings (currently ~78–84% for up/flat-to-up on Feb 26 open) are likely because the market has already priced in a near-certain earnings beat (92–95% in the beat/miss market). Traders are heavily positioned for NVDA to clear expectations on revenue and Blackwell demand, with guidance seen as the real catalyst. Since a beat is widely anticipated, any in-line or slightly better-than-expected commentary would sustain momentum, trigger short covering, and close the recent gap down from Feb 3. Of course, a "sell the news" or any signs of slowing in NVDA's earnings report would send markets lower though Polymarket odds for such an occurrence are significantly lower.
Also keep in mind that NVDA could gap higher then sell off taking the market with it, so keep stops tight. In such an event, price/volume selling pressure would be reflected in the NASDAQ Composite, potentially pushing the model back into cash (or sell).
ASM buyable if it can break above its 10-dma and 20-dema.
HMY will likely trade enough volume for a second 5-day pocket pivot in three days.
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