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SSS - Thoughts on the Short-Side for Friday, June 24, 2011

The market indexes are coming off on lighter volume this morning. The market is in the short-term very news-oriented, but we should remember that most of the current news has likely alreday been discounted by the market.

If the indexes bust their 200-dma then we would look to be more aggressive on the short side. The simple solution to any market uncertainty is to stick to your stops. Thus AAPL's ability to push above the 200-dma yesterday was a reasonable trailing stop on the upside, as this morning the resistance area in the 330-331 area came into play and the stock has been unable to break through those levels. Thus traders using tighter stops could have exited at the 200-dma while those using looser stops might use the 330-331 level as an upside guide. NTAP, on the other hand, never got above its 50-dma at 51.54, more or less, hence remained in play and today is down about 2.7% as we type.

For now we tend to think that the probability of at least a short-term rally in the market of a few days duration is high here, so simply watch your stops and stick to them. If one is quickly stopped out on the short side another opportunity may always be waiting at higher levels if the market rallies. In the meantime, we will see whether this current rally attempt produces a follow-through day. Consider that if the Euro-members move forward with a bailout of Greece, then we are likely looking at "Euro-QE" coming into play, which would likely lead to a falling Euro, rising dollar, and perhaps some of this extra Euro-liquidity coming into dollar-denominated assets.

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