Forward inflation kicked higher in July as the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Friday came in at 0.3% vs. expectations of 0.2% on both the core and headline numbers. This came after Thursday's release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) which matched expectations of 0.2% while the year-over-year number came in 0.1% lighter than expected. An initial rally in response to the light CPI number was sold into, however, as the NASDAQ Composite reversed badly at its 20-dema and closed below its 50-dma for the second day in a row. Before Wednesday's close below the line, the last time it closed below the 50-day moving average was back along the March lows. Friday's move to lower lows constituted a technical violation of the 50-day moving average, a bearish development.
Big-stock AI meme leader Nvidia (NVDA) seemed bullet-proof based on all the analyst and media hype over its role as a supplier of semiconductors that enable AI technology. Its impervious upside tendencies were blown apart this past week as the stock triggered short-sale entries along the 10-dma and 20-dema earlier in the week before busting and violating the 50-dma in the last three trading days of the week. Rallies back up into the 50-dma would bring it back into short-sale range from here so can be watched for. Indeed, it had a pocket pivot back through its 50-dma on Monday though remains suspect since none of the other $1 T+ AI-meme stocks showed much volume buying on Monday. NVDA is expected to report earnings on August 23rd.
MongoDB (MDB) and The Trade Desk (TTD) both triggered short-sale entries at their 20-day exponential moving averages and then their 50-day moving averages as they quickly break to the downside. Both stocks are also late-stage failed-base (LSFB) short-sale set-ups in process but remain in free fall for now. Rallies back up into the 50-day lines would bring these back into short-sale range so can be watched for.
Big-stock NASDAQ names Amazon.com (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL) continue to hold above prior base breakout points. AMZN, however, closed below the 139.22 intraday low of its buyable gap-up (BGU) day two Fridays ago after earnings. A break below the 10-dma could confirm this as a possible breakout failure type of short-sale set-up so can be watched for. GOOGL meanwhile remains above the 128.32 intraday low of its post-earnings BGU nearly three weeks ago after reporting earnings, but closed Friday just below the 10-day moving average. A break below the 128.32 BGU low followed by a breach of support at the 20-dema could trigger this as a breakout failure type of short-sale set-up which can also be watched for if the general market remains weak.
Gold and silver continue to trend lower after breaking key moving average support over the past two weeks. Both the VanEck Merk Gold Trust (OUNZ) and the Aberdeen Physical Silver (SIVR) busted 50-dma support last week. SIVR, which outshone OUNZ in early June, is now lagging as it broke below the 200-day moving average on Tuesday where it remained for the rest of the week as it built a short four-day bear flag. OUNZ appears set to potentially test 200-dma support which would coincide roughly with the $1900/oz. level in spot gold.
Bitcoin ($BTCUSD) also remains under pressure after rallying into 50-dma resistance earlier this past week and then reversing sharply. That presented a potential short-sale entry at the 50-day line as $BTCUSD now sits just below 20-dema resistance and right above 10-dma support.
The Market Direction Model (MDM) switched to a CASH signal before the open on Friday, August 11th.