The Dow remains the only major market index to sit at higher highs off the late October market low. The NASDAQ Composite and S&P 500 Index remain below the absolute late July highs but on Friday both indexes posted higher highs on a closing basis. The latest Bureau of Labor Statistic jobs report came in at 199,000 new non-farm payrolls vs. expectations of 175,000-191,000. The slight surprise was mostly a function of striking UAW workers getting back on the job in November. Unemployment ticked back down to 3.7% from 3.9%, a surprising reversal given rising unemployment in past cycles, but shows many are seeking multiple income streams to survive.
Bitcoin ($BTCUSD) remains a force to be reckoned with as it pushes higher, dragging along crypto-related stocks. Last weekend we discussed the pocket pivot in large Bitcoin owner Microstrategy (MSTR) as it sat in a short flag formation. On Monday the stock gapped higher and posted a typical buyable gap-up move on heavy volume.
Big-stock AI Meme names Broadcom (AVGO), Meta Platforms (META) and Nvidia (NVDA), which had triggered various short-sale entries over recent weeks, recovered back above their 20-day exponential moving averages on Friday. AVGO traded the largest volume after reporting earnings on Thursday evening. Initially these can be treated as moving average undercut & rally (MAU&R) type moves where the 20-dema is used as a selling guide. Any reversal back below the 20-dema would bring these back into play as short-sale targets if that occurs, however.
We also reported on potential moving average undercut & rally (MAU&R) moves in gold and silver early on Friday, but these set-ups did not hold up by the close. The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) was attempting to shakeout along its 20-dema early on Friday but ultimately closed just below the line. The MAU&R could come into play since GLD closed just below the 20-dema and could still recover to trigger another MAU&R which can be watched for.The iShares Silver Trust (SLV) was attempting an MAU&R set-up at the 200-day moving average early on Friday but that quickly failed as it slashed below the 200-dma and closed just below the 50-dma. If GLD can rally back above its 20-dema then it is possible that SLV could post an MAU&R move at its 50-dma. Silver tends to be much more volatile than gold so its relatively sharp underperformanc3e on a down day for the metals is not surprising.
The Market Direction Model (MDM) remains on a BUY signal.