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VoSI Focus List Review for the Week Ended January 19, 2024

Major market indexes rode higher on the backs of big-stock semiconductor and computer hardware names after Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) reported better than expected earnings on Thursday morning and then when Super Micro Computer (SMCI) released early guidance that was far ahead of analysts' estimates. The market took heart from this as the NASDAQ Composite, Dow, NASDAQ 100, and S&P 500 Indexes all broke out to higher or new highs. Meanwhile, the broader market as represented by the 3500-stock strong NYSE Composite Index and the small-cap Russell 2000 Indexes lag.
Arm Holdings (ARM) has acted erratically around its 20-dema, but on Wednesday posted a very marginal moving average U&R along its 20-dema before gapping higher on Friday after TSM reported earnings and then again on Friday after SMCI raised guidance. ARM's action is representative of the action seen throughout the semiconductor sector as stocks reacted to news from TSM and SMCI that was seen as confirmation of a turnaround in the semiconductor industry.
The news from TSM and SMCI brought many otherwise moribund semiconductors back to life. One example is Applied Materials (AMAT) which had retreated from a massive double-top/cup formation as it dropped below its 10-week moving average support on the weekly chart below. The news this week caused the stock to re-breakout and post all-time highs from a very deep cup or punchbowl formation. Technically, AMAT is just outside re-breakout buying range.
Big-stock techs Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Broadcom (AVGO) and Nvidia (NVDA) all continued higher in pre-existing uptrends. AMD remains extended while AVGO posted a strong-volume base breakout and Century Mark long entry trigger on Friday as it cleared the 12th Century Mark, the $1,200 price level. NVDA remains extended from its own prior base breakout and Century Mark long entry at the $500 price level but is now bearing down on the next Century Mark at the $600 level. In theory, a strong move through this Century Mark would trigger another long entry point using the $600 level as a selling guide.
Intel (INTC), which has been in a steady uptrend since the late October lows, was slow to react to the TSM earnings news on Thursday but came through with a pocket pivot at the 10-dma and 20-dema as it seeks to resume its uptrend. This is technically actionable using the 10-dma and 20-dema as selling guides.
Other techs chimed in with strong moves as well, including VoSI favorite Arista Networks (ANET) as it begins to go parabolic following two strong pocket pivot moves on the way up in early December and then early January. The last possible add point occurred on Wednesday as the stock tested the 10-dma with volume declining as the stock is well-extended at this stage.
While semiconductors and techs stole the show this past week, DraftKings (DKNG) was one of the best performing non-tech stocks of the week. Gil discussed this in detail last weekend as a long entry in a VooDoo Report missive based on the use of his HGS Investor Software custom chart views which employ technical signals well beyond what the mass of traders/investors are using. This can at times provide an edge. Gil is not affiliated with HGS Investor but did work with them to produce some unusual and unique VPA Chart Views. These yielded a long entry signal on DraftKings (DKNG) two Fridays ago which immediately led to successive MAU&R long entries at the 10-dma on Tuesday and the 20-dema on Wednesday. These were followed on Thursday by a buyable gap-up (BGU) long entry using the 36.44 intraday low as a selling guide. Based on Friday's close, DKNG remains just within buying range (<3%) of the BGU intraday low.
Bitcoin ($BTCUSD) remains in a late-stage failed-base (LSFB) short-sale set-up in progress as is broke 50-day moving average support earlier in the week. It has now triggered short-sale entries at the 20-dema and then the 50-dma over the past two weeks. This has been playable using the ProShares Short Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITI) as a vehicle for the trade, taking long positions in BITI as $BTCUSD first broke below the 20-dema and then again on Thursday as it broke below the 50-dma.
Overall the past two weeks have not been kind to alternative currencies. Both gold and silver have trended lower over that period, but on Thursday gold as measured by the VanEck Merk Gold Trust (OUNZ) posted an MAU&R at the 50-dma and edged higher on Friday. Silver as measured by the Aberdeen Physical Silver Shares (SIVR) is attempting to hold a price U&R along the prior 21.56 low. It closed Friday at 21.62 so remains within buying range using the prior 21.56 low as a selling guide.
Junior gold miner and leading precious metals stock Eldorado Gold (EGO) posted a pocket pivot at its 10-dma and 20-dema on Friday. This is actionable using the 10-dma as a maximum downside selling guide. EGO's pocket pivot has the best chance of working within the context of a continued rise in gold prices following Thursday's MAU&R in OUNZ.
The Market Direction Model (MDM) switched to a BUY signal on Thursday, January 18th.

This information is provided by MoKa Investors, LLC DBA Virtue of Selfish Investing (VoSI) is issued solely for informational purposes and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. Information contained herein is based on sources which we believe to be reliable but is not guaranteed by us as being accurate and does not purport to be a complete statement or summary of available data. VoSI reports are intended to alert VoSI members to technical developments in certain securities that may or may not be actionable, only, and are not intended as recommendations. Past performance is not a guarantee, nor is it necessarily indicative, of future results. Opinions expressed herein are statements of our judgment as of the publication date and are subject to change without notice. Entities including but not limited to VoSI, its members, officers, directors, employees, customers, agents, and affiliates may have a position, long or short, in the securities referred to herein, and/or other related securities, and may increase or decrease such position or take a contra position. Additional information is available upon written request. This publication is for clients of Virtue of Selfish Investing. Reproduction without written permission is strictly prohibited and will be prosecuted to the full extent of the law. ©2024 MoKa Investors, LLC DBA Virtue of Selfish Investing. All rights reserved.
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