Major market indexes ground their way to higher highs on Friday as the S&P 500 and NYSE Composite posted all-time absolute highs while the NASDAQ Composite posted another all-time closing high. The recent emergence of the NYSE Composite this past week reflects some broadening as more stocks join in what has been primarily a tech-led rally off the early April lows.
The market indexes have continued to grind higher even as marquee names have failed on earnings over the past two weeks. The best performer among the six big-stock NASDAQ names below was Alphabet (GOOG) which rallied higher after earnings but reversed near the $200 level. GOOG still managed to close up on the day, and traded slightly positive on Friday. Intel (INTC), Tesla (TSLA) and Texas Instruments (TXN) all gapped down sharply after earnings. TSLA has rallied into a potential short-sale entry position at the 20-dema. Netflix (NFLX) broke 50-dma support on a sharp downside move after earnings and has continued to move lower since. Big-stock cloud ServiceNow (NOW) rallied after earnings on Thursday but that rally vaporized as the stock reversed and closed below 50-dma support. On Friday it presented a short-sale entry at the 50-dma before reversing and breaking even lower as it pierced 200-dma support.
This coming week we will see earnings from Meta Platforms (META) and Microsoft (MSFT) Wednesday after the close, and then Apple (AAPL) and Amazon.com (AMZN) on Thursday after the close. While a weak showing among the marquee names shown above failed to dislodge the market's upside grind, these big-stock index influencers may have a more pronounced effect on the market action this week.
Trade set-ups in this market are very much a hit-and-miss affair. On Wednesday we issued reports on the four names shown below. Constellation Energy (CEG) posted a pocket pivot that reversed badly after a sharp rally higher. It does, however, remain above 10-dma support so technically the pocket pivot remains in force using the 10-dma as a selling guide. Small modular nuclear reactor maker Nano Nuclear Energy (NNE) was showing potential pocket pivot volume early in the day on Wednesday but that faded into the close. Nevertheless, an alternative set-up, namely an MAU&R at the 20-dema on Wednesday did work, and the stock has since broken out. NNE's small modular reactor cousin, Oklo (OKLO) posted a clean pocket pivot on Wednesday and then followed through with a breakout on Thursday. Vistra Energy (VST) attempted to post a BGU on Wednesday after earnings, but that move failed quickly on Thursday as the stock broke down and triggered Livermore Century Mark short-sale entry at the $200 level.
Bitcoin ($BTCUSD) has formed a two-week flag formation following its breakout to new highs on July 10th. On Friday, $BTCUSD posted a big-volume shakeout at the 50-dma, technically a moving average undercut & rally (MAU&R) at the 50-dma which then serves as a tight selling guide.
Gold came within 2% of its all-time highs on Tuesday before backing down as positive tariff news crossed the wires. A three-day sell-off resulted in a shakeout and MAU&R at the 50-dma which is technically actionable using the 50-day line as a selling guide.
On Wednesday COMEX Silver Futures came within nine cents of the $40.00 an ounce level, a potential psychological resistance at a round number where profit-taking came into play. The iShares Silver Trust (SLV) is now heading for 20-dema support where we would watch for a potential opportunistic entry depending on how the white metal acts at the 20-day line.
This week will see the Fed release their latest policy announcement on Wednesday. The market has been looking for indications of a possible rate cut, with the Fed dot plot currently calling for two rate cuts before year-end. With big-stock NASDAQ earnings and the Fed on deck, this may be a meaningful week for the market.
The Market Direction Model (MDM) remains on a BUY signal.