Major market indexes gyrated through a volatile weak as a nasty sell-off on Thursday produced outside reversals lower in all the indexes save for the NASDAQ Composite which found marginal intraday support at its 20-dema. On Friday, a gap-up open sent the indexes into immediate recovery mode as they all quickly regained their 10-day moving averages and closed above the line and near recent highs.
As we surmised might occur per our Focus List Review report of last weekend, Bitcoin ($BTCUSD) made a break for its 50-day moving average, where it ended the week. The short entry along the 20-dema has now succeeded and it remains to be seen whether $BTCUSD can now hold 50-dma support. If that is breached, then a fresh short-sale entry would be triggered at that point. We find the ProShares Short Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITI) as a useful inversely-correlated vehicle for shorting $BTCUSD.
It was also a rough week for precious metals, despite both gold and silver posting pocket pivot moves through their 10-day moving averages on Wednesday as volume picked up significantly, generally a bullish sign. That was not to be as both metals then broke to the downside with the VanEck Merk Gold Trust (OUNZ) breaking below the 50-day line and the Aberdeen Physical Silver Trust (SIVR) busting its 20-dema as it looks marginally better on its chart as it still remains above support at the 50-day moving average.
Technically, Thursday's BGU remains in force using the 309.84, about 4% below Friday's close, as a selling guide. MSFT played out as a shortable gap-down move on Wednesday after earnings as it also broke below the 20-dema, triggering another short-sale entry at that point. It is now attempting to hold 50-dma support, but any break below the 50-day line would trigger a fresh short-sale entry using the 50-day line as a covering guide.
Big-stock AI meme leader Nvidia (NVDA) continues to hold up after posting a pocket pivot breakout two weeks ago. While volume was only about average that day, it was a enough for a pocket pivot volume signature, which can substitute for heavy buying volume on a base breakout. For now pullbacks to the 20-dema would constitute potentially lower-risk long entry opportunities as long as NVDA does not violate the 20-dema based on the Seven-Week Rule discussed in the book Trade Like an O'Neil Disciple.
MongoDB (MDB) continues to falter after a recent failed breakout two weeks ago. It has spent the past three days back below the 10-day moving which for now has been shortable resistance. Any break below the 20-dema would trigger another short-sale entry using the 20-day line as a covering guide. MDB is not expected to report earnings until August 31.
The Market Direction Model (MDM) remains on a BUY signal.