VoSI Focus List Review for the Week Ended June 20, 2025

The final three trading days of the week were characterized by up openings that mostly reversed, with the S&P 500 and NYSE Composite both closing down on those days. The softness in the indexes was likely a function of the Fed's policy announcement on Wednesday which leaned slightly to the hawkish side as the Fed considers risk biased towards more inflation and slower employment, essentially a stagflationary sort of scenario. Nervousness over the possibility of the U.S. joining the attack on Iran was also a factor.
While volume levels were likely exaggerated on Friday due to end of H1 2025 triple-witching OpEx activity, big-stock names displayed some unusual price action. Among big-stock NASDAQ names, many of which we have reported on since early April, Apple (AAPL) pushed higher on Friday to post an OpEx skewed pocket pivot at the 10-dma and 20-dma as 50-dma resistance looms above. Amazon.com (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL) both triggered short entries at their 10-dmas on Friday with AMZN closing ten cents above 20-dema support while GOOGL slashed through 20-dema and 200-dma support.

Meta Platforms (META) broke 10-dma support, a potential short-sale entry, while Microsoft (MSFT) and Nvidia (NVDA) closed just above 10-dma support. The action in AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, and META was more decisive, and it remains to be seen whether these were Triple-Witch OpEx one-offs or not.
Gold continues to consolidate as the SPDR Gold Trust (SPDR) pulls into 20-dema support on light volume. Technically, the 20-dema would serve as the first reference for buyable pullbacks.
Silver, which had a sharp run-up the week before, is now pulling back, as one might expect given its more volatile nature. We currently look for potentially buyable support at or near the 20-dema in the iShares Silver Trust (SLV).
Bitcoin ($BTCUSD) is busting support despite the Senate's passage of The Genius Act on Wednesday. It broke 50-dma support on Friday and was heading lower over the weekend at the time of this writing. Technically the reversal at the 10-dma and 20-dema followed by a close below the 50-dma was a short-sale entry trigger.
This has been mostly favorable for companies involved with stablecoins, such as recent IPO Circle (CRCL) and crypto-broker Coinbase (COIN), a major exchange for stablecoins. COIN also holds a minority stake in CRCL which includes a 50% revenue-sharing agreement on interest income from USDC reserves and 100% of revenue from USDC held on COIN’s platform. The Genius Act, if passed by the House after making it through the Senate on Wednesday, would be a major milestone for the stablecoin industry, any near-term FOMO-like enthusiasm notwithstanding. If the bill becomes law, Circle will be the only U.S.-listed stablecoin firm with clear regulatory backing, which could cement its dominance and drive further adoption.

Circle’s Q1 2025 revenue grew 59%, with net income up 75% year-over-year. Partnerships with Amazon, Walmart, and Shopify to integrate USDC for payments are fueling bullish growth projections. Major Wall Street and VC backing, plus a Buy rating and $235 price target from Seaport Global, reinforce investor confidence. Some analysts see a path to $300 per share if Circle can expand USDC’s market share, diversify revenue, and maintain regulatory advantages. Its price could well exceed $300 is USDC adoption surges, GENIUS Act passes, Circle diversifies revenue, and crypto stays strong which is likely given the long term trajectory of crypto but in any crypto bear market, USDC usage and Circle’s revenues could fall, dragging the stock down.

That said, at current prices, Circle trades at extremely high multiples at over 200x net income and 24x revenue. Any disappointment in growth or profitability could trigger a sharp correction.

Further, CRCL's revenue is heavily reliant on interest income from Treasury bill yields, such that a potential drop in interest rates could significantly reduce revenue. Any sharp reduction in T-Bill yields could crimp CRCL's revenue and net come outlook. If the Fed cuts rates, Circle’s core income could drop significantly.

Keep in mind that Tether (USDT) still dominates the stablecoin market, and new entrants (including banks or tech giants) could erode Circle’s share. Regulatory overreach or setbacks (e.g., if the House blocks the GENIUS Act) could also hurt sentiment.