Major market indexes all ended the week at all-time highs with the sole exception of the small-cap Russell 2000 Index. While the Russell 200 remains well shy of its all-time it still continues to post higher highs as it seeks to keep up with the rest of the major indexes. The market trend, at least from an index standpoint, remains to the upside. PCE inflation data on Friday roughly came in as expected with the core number printing 0.4% and the headline number printing at 0.3% vs. expectations of 0.4% for both.
Ultimately, we believe that the Fed has become somewhat irrelevant as monetary policy takes a back seat to extreme fiscal spending as the national debt is certainly headed for at least $35 trillion in 2024. Government spending in the $6-7 trillion range with deficits well above $1 trillion or more effectively acts as a form of fiscal QE where massive liquidity resulting from off-the-charts government spending continues to pour into the system.
After a blistering 20%-plus run over the past week, Bitcoin ($BTCUSD) is holding up in a very tight three-day flag formation as of Saturday. For now it remains quite extended as it approaches its $68,978.64 all-time high.
Bitcoin spot ETF total net flows continue to surge. This is a new important variable that can sustain new demand for BTC for some time.
In contrast to the blistering, relatively consistent upside in $BTCUSD, crypto related stocks have been a much more volatile affair. As Bitcoin streaks higher over the past week, crypto miners CleanSpark (CLSK), Iris Energy (IREN), and Marathon Holdings (MARA) which kept pace with Bitcoin throughout most of February have corrected quite sharply. In the process, however, these three that we reported on in early February as long entries as they lifted off lows, posted moving average undercut & rally (MAU&R) moves on Friday as they shook out along key moving average support.
CLSK and MARA both tested 20-dema support and held as they undercut the moving average and then rallied to trigger long entries using the 20-dema as a tight selling guide. IREN has declined to its 50-dma where it shook out on Friday to trigger an MAU&R long entry using the 50-dma as a tight selling guide.
Precious metals were on the move Friday as the VanEck Merk Gold Trust (OUNZ) broke out to new highs on heavy buying volume as gold approaches the $2,100/ounce level. Technically this is actionable using the 50-dma, less than 3% lower, as a selling guide.
Silver as measured by the Aberdeen Physical Silver Shares (SIVR) remains well off its all-time highs near $50/ounce but followed gold higher by posting a big-volume pocket pivot at its 10-dma, 20-dema, and 50-dma before running into resistance near the 200-dma. If gold and silver continue higher, expect SIVR to push through the 200-dma as well.
Big-stock miners Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM) and Barrick Gold (GOLD) both posted long entry triggers on Friday. AEM posted an MAU&R at the 10-dma and 20-dema while GOLD posted a strong-volume pocket pivot at its 20-dema. In both cases the 20-dema can be used as a selling guide.
Arista Networks (ANET) has recovered nicely after breaking down to its 50-day moving average following earnings over two weeks ago. Despite violating the 20-dema, which technically issued a sell signal based on the Seven-Week Rule, ANET simply bounced off 50-dma support and broke out Friday on a closing basis. It is now approaching the $300 Century Mark which could set-up another long entry ahead.
AI Meme semiconductors Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Nvidia (NVDA) both triggered Century Mark long entries on Friday. AMD did so at the $200 Century Mark and remains within a percent or so of this key price level so is technically in a long entry position using the $200 level as a selling guide. This comes on the heels of Thursday's big-volume breakout. NVDA is meanwhile clearing the $800 level and closed Friday at 822.79, keeping it just within buying range using the $800 level as a selling guide.
The Market Direction Model (MDM) remains on a BUY signal.