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VoSI Focus List Review for the Week Ended March 20, 2020

General Observations: 
We are now witnessing the Great 2020 Market Crash as the Dow has posted the fastest 36% market decline in history.

If we compare 2020 to 1987 and 1929, both considered market crash years, we can see that the extent of the current down leg off the peak (and it may not be over yet) has been -36.02% in 25 trading days off the peak as measured by the Dow. In 1929 the market collapsed -49.4% in 52 days, and in 1987 it collapsed -41.16% in 41 days.

In terms of sheer velocity, however, the Crash of 2020 makes 1987 and 1929 look like child’s play. In 25 days off the peak, the Dow was only down -5.47% in 1987 and only -10.41% in 1929. Today, if it isn't nailed down, they are selling it, and for now there does not seem to be any relief in sight, despite the Fed throwing everything but the kitchen sink via trillions of dollars in fresh QE. The Fed balance sheet, as of Thursday night, has now reached a record $4.7 trillion.

For now, cash is king.

The Market Direction Model (MDM) remains on a SELL signal.

The coming week's economic reports start with Monday's Chicago Fed national activity which tracks economic activity in the 7th district, which is comprised of Indiana, Iowa, Illinois, Michigan and Wisconsin. Expect surprising levels of weakness which could prompt a market gapping lower on Monday's open. Countering this would be any positive news on the corona containment front which seems more distant with each passing day.

The first panic selling wave was due to exponential rise in coronavirus cases. The second panic selling wave will likely be due to the massive amount of damage done to the economy due to lockdowns, quarantines, and supply chain disruptions. A third wave of panic selling could be due to the infection rate not leveling off as the weather turns warmer. Since the virus is brand new, Harvard Medical School's coronavirus resource center said, "At this time, we do not know whether the spread of COVID-19 will decrease when the weather warms up."

This information is provided by MoKa Investors, LLC DBA Virtue of Selfish Investing (VoSI) is issued solely for informational purposes and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. Information contained herein is based on sources which we believe to be reliable but is not guaranteed by us as being accurate and does not purport to be a complete statement or summary of available data. VoSI reports are intended to alert VoSI members to technical developments in certain securities that may or may not be actionable, only, and are not intended as recommendations. Past performance is not a guarantee, nor is it necessarily indicative, of future results. Opinions expressed herein are statements of our judgment as of the publication date and are subject to change without notice. Entities including but not limited to VoSI, its members, officers, directors, employees, customers, agents, and affiliates may have a position, long or short, in the securities referred to herein, and/or other related securities, and may increase or decrease such position or take a contra position. Additional information is available upon written request. This publication is for clients of Virtue of Selfish Investing. Reproduction without written permission is strictly prohibited and will be prosecuted to the full extent of the law. ©2024 MoKa Investors, LLC DBA Virtue of Selfish Investing. All rights reserved.
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