Major market indexes spent the week in sideways consolidations following the prior sharp break off the peak in late February. The Fed policy announcement on Wednesday was unable to jar the market out of its current bear flag funk, and so the indexes remains in an unresolved price range along the recent correction lows. Indexes managed to close up on Friday after futures tanked overnight on Thursday, leading to a gap-down open Friday morning. Volume was extremely heavy as a result of quarter-end, triple-witching options expiration, giving the action a bullish look on the charts of the NASDAQ Composite and S&P 500.
We see very little in the way of actionable set-ups as individual stocks mostly chop back and forth along recent lows, not unlike the market indexes themselves. Two names that might lend themselves to bullish interpretations from an Ugly Duckling perspective would be Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Nvidia (NVDA).
Gold remains firmly above the elusive $3,000/oz. mark after posting yet another all-time high of $3,068.20 on Thursday. The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) was down less than 1% on Friday as the yellow metal holds relatively tight after posting new highs this week. Silver via the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) is acting like its typically more volatile self as it comes in to test 20-dema support. The SLV posted a moving average undercut & rally (MAU&R) at the 20-dema on Friday, a technical long entry using the 20-day line as a tight selling guide.
Precious metals stocks finally pulled back in the latter half of the week after sharp upside runs in March. Pullbacks in gold miners were mostly quite orderly, as the daily chart of the VanEck Junior Gold Miners (GDXJ) ETF shows below. An early pullback found support near the 10-dma as the GDXJ closed at is highs for the day.
Big-stock mega-cap gold miners Agnico-Eagle Miners (AEM), Barrick Gold (GOLD), and Newmont Corp. (NEM) all held moving average support on Friday. AEM pulled into 10-dma support and bounced. It is a recent Livermore Century Mark long entry at the $100 level which is then used as a selling guide. GOLD held 10-dma support while NEM traded huge OpEx volume and rallied sharply off a point just above key 200-dma support.
Silver miners exhibited a little more volatility, but the two big leaders in the space, First Majestic Silver (AG) and Endeavour Silver (EXK) both pulled in today but held above 10-dma support. These are perhaps two of the most bullish-looking charts in an otherwise bleak market environment.
Hecla Mining (HL) was reported on Thursday as an MAU&R along 200-dma support. It posted two such MAU&Rs after posting a second on Friday. Technically, this actionable using the 200-dma as a tight selling guide.
We reported on Micron Technology (MU) Thursday as a possible short before it released earnings after the close. That report turned out to be somewhat prescient as the stock initially rallied after earnings but eventually reversed, opening up Friday as a shortable gap-down as it busted its 10-dma, 20-dema, and 50-dma moving averages.
Bitcoin ($BTCUSD) remains below 200-dma resistance. Technically, this would present a short entry at the 200-dma using the line as a tight covering guide. Optimally, however, the reversal at the 20-dema on Thursday was preferable as a short entry if one were intent on doing so.
This remains a challenging environment as the long side has not shown any significant signs of development as the indexes attempt to edge up off recent lows, while the short side is plagued by the fact that most formerly leading stocks have become extended on the downside and oversold to some extent, hence resulting in a dearth of fresh short-sale set-ups.The Market Direction Model (MDM) switched to a CASH/NEUTRAL signal on Wednesday, March 19, 2025.