Major market indexes continue to track mostly sideways, with the occasional tariff scare along the way. As we noted last weekend, repeating news often loses its impact on the market over time. And by now the market knows all about what some already refer to as the TACO trade, as in Trump Always Chickens Out when it comes to enforcing or following-through on his tariff threats.
Bitcoin ($BTCUSD) posted a double-top short-sale (DTSS) entry at the prior all-time high on what was essentially a bull-trap breakout to fresh all-time highs. It has since declined back below the 20-dema where it has spent the weekend. Technically, this is a short-sale entry position using the 20-day line as a covering guide. Given the move off the early April lows, a test of the 50-dma is not out of the question given $BTCUSD's inherent volatility.
As $BTCUSD backs off of recent all-time highs in what is at least a near-term double-top, crypto miners we have reported on previously have come off hard. Most recently, all three, CleanSpark (CLSK), IREN Ltd. (IREN), and Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA) played out as short-sale entries at 200-dma resistance and are now pulling into lower moving average support.
Gold continues to move in a sideways range as it consolidates its sharp gains so far in 2025. The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) is currently in a six-week base as it attempts to tighten up along 10-dma and 20-dema support.
Mega-cap big-stock gold miner Newmont Corp. (NEM), which is tracking sideways with gold, posted a pocket pivot and MAU&R along its 20-dema on Friday. The strong volume increase may be a function of month-end activity, so we will see how this acts in the coming week. Meanwhile, it is technically actionable as both an MAU&R and a pocket pivot using the 20-dema as a tight selling guide.
Silver also continues to track sideways along 50-dma support. The iShares Silver Trust (SLV) on Friday again tested 50-dma support and held, posting a moving average U&R at the 20-dema in the process. It remains buyable here using the 50-day line as a selling guide.
The much anticipated earnings report from leading AI semiconductor name Nvidia (NVDA) turned out to be much ado about nothing. Despite beating estimates, NVDA's initial rally back up to the prior 143.44 left-side sub-peak failed as the stock reversed, playing out as a double-top short-sale (DTSS) near 143.44 price resistance. The stock moved lower on Friday and is now holding at 10-dma support. Any breach of the line would trigger a second short-sale entry.
Defense-related AI darling Palantir (PLTR) posted a strong-volume pocket pivot on Friday, but not before first rallying above 131.00 early in the day and then retracing almost all of the move by mid-day. It then recovered and rallied sharply into the close to end the day with a strong pocket pivot move. This had a catalyst, however, and one that some may find disturbing, after President Trump indicated that he was "tapping PLTR to compile data on Americans."
As noted above, month-end activity may have been responsible for a number of stocks showing strong volume spikes on Friday. In some cases these resulted in pocket pivot signatures. Six big-stock NASDAQ names shown below illustrate the action, with Microsoft (MSFT) and Netflix (NFLX) posting pocket pivots along 10-dma support. Amazon.com (AMZN) posted pocket pivot support at its 200-dma while Cisco Systems (CSCO) did so at its 20-dema. Alphabet (GOOGL) shook out along its 10-dma and 200-dma to post MAU&R set-ups at both moving averages. Meta Platforms (META) showed strong volume support on Friday as it shook out along 10-dma support but did not post any concrete long set-ups.
The action in big-stock techs has been uneven, however, as names we reported on earlier in April, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Arista Networks (ANET), and Arm Holdings (ARM) spent the week selling off after some decent upside moves throughout most of April and May.
Industrial metals names that we reported on nearly two weeks ago continue to mostly move sideways. U.S. Steel (X) is the notable exception as it launched higher two Fridays ago after reported on the stock as a pocket pivot long entry at 50-dma support two days prior. The big breakout in X had a significant catalyst, however, when President Trump stated that he would support a business combination between X and Nippon Steel.Pullbacks in steelmaker Commercial Metals (CMC) and coppers Ero Copper (ERO) and Teck Resources (TECK) to moving average support on Friday may offer opportunistic entries using the relevant moving average as a selling guide. Aluminum producer Alcoa (AA) was the lone exception after President Trump declared that he would raise tariffs on aluminum and steel from 25% to 50% during a rally at a U.S. Steel plant on Friday. AA is a major Canadian aluminum producer, and its sell-off on Friday triggered a short-sale entry as it broke 20-dema and 50-dma support.
Near-term, the market has reached a trendless state of consolidation following its strong move off the early April lows. It does, however, remain subject to sudden movements depending on a variety of utterances and social-media posts from Trump, whether related to tariffs, as in the case of the industrial metals, or otherwise, as in the case of PLTR.The Market Direction Model (MDM) remains on a BUY signal.