The action has benefited from two catalysts this week, the first being the market's recognition that Trump is slowly but surely going to drop the Big TACO and back out of the Iran War while claiming victory. If that is true, then it is quite peculiar that the net benefit of this military action will then be to have increased Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz.
The action has benefited from two catalysts this week, the first being the market's recognition that Trump is slowly but surely going to drop the Big TACO and back out of the Iran War while claiming victory. If that is true, then the net benefit of this military action will be to have increased Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz. The other catalyst was the weak jobs number that saw a -23,000 decline in non-farm payrolls vs. expectations of 85,000 in July, while May and June jobs numbers were revised lower by a combined 103,000 jobs. This was viewed as putting the Fed on hold as the employment picture continues to fade.
Illustration created by Gil Morales using X Imagine.Other areas of the market including the Dow, NYSE Composite and small-cap Russell 2000 are participating as the market appears to become less tech-centric. After all, it was the Dow and the NYSE Composite that led the market to new highs. Meanwhile, the indexes have synced up as they all moved together, trending sharply higher early in the week and then spending the last three days of the week consolidating in tight little bull flags.
Precious metals finally awoke from their slumber by gapping higher on Tuesday and Wednesday. The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) and the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) pushed off their lows this week o strong volume. The GLD did so on a clear bottom-fishing buyable gap-up (BFBGU) move through the 50-dma on Wednesday while the SLV posted a bottom-fishing gap-up pocket pivot (GUPP).
Specialty steel maker ATI, Inc. (ATI) posted a buyable gap-up on Thursday using the intraday low at 219.99 as a selling guide. The stock came in a little further on Friday as it tested the 219.99 BGU low and brought it back into buying position. It then turned and rallied to post an all-time closing high. TheGlobal X Copper Miners (COPX) ETF gapped up on a pocket pivot volume signature on Wednesday, which did not trade enough volume for a BGU, but we note that this is another example of the gap-up pocket pivot (GUPP) which has worked as a long set-up for stocks since April. So far, this particular GUPP in COPX has worked. We reported on Cloudflare (NET) Friday morning after it gapped higher on earnings, clearing the $300 Century Mark and triggering a Century Mark long entry early in the day. That all reversed as the stock went tail-up and closed 27 cents above the $300 level. If it should fail to hold the $300 level it would then trigger a Century Mark short right there as this is the first time the stock has ever cleared the $300 Century Mark..
Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM), Alamos Gold (AGI), Aris Mining (ARIS), Equinox Gold (EQX), and NovaGold Resources (NG) all posted bottom-fishing buyable gap-ups (BFBGUs) on Wednesday. Interestingly, most of these names were not trading high enough volume run rates around mid-day on Wednesday, but volume surges in these names in the final hour of trade led to bona fide BFBGU moves. We then reported on these names on Thursday as they pulled in to test the lows of the BFBGU day and/or moving average support where they were still in buying range before launching higher on Friday. Note also that EQX, which reported earnings Wednesday after the close, initially sold down to 10-dma/20-dema support the next morning on Thursday where it found massive volume support to post a massive-volume pocket pivot on a wild outside reversal to the upside which we reported on at the time. We did not report on the stock ahead of earnings on Wednesday as we prefer to avoid playing earnings roulette. Better to take advantage of the ensuing post-earnings action where high-velocity high time-value set-ups can often occur and that was certainly the case with EQX.
Silver miners Hecla Mining (HL), Hycroft Mining (HYMC) and Pan-American Silver (PAAS) did not post BFBGUs but instead all posted gap-up pocket pivots (GUPPs) on Wednesday and then held tight and within buyable range when we reported on them on Thursday. Note that the action in gold and the gold miners on Wednesday was all BFBGUs, while the action in silver and the silver miners was all GUPPs.
A fascinating week with some key catalysts that have given strong impetus to a new index-based uptrend. The critical solution is found in being able to find the set-ups upon which to act, and to some extent this is developing. Given that Iran War news and speculation was partly behind the market action this past week, it is possible that things could change. And there is also the possibility that if Trump does cut and run out of the Middle East, it will become a sell-the-news event.The Market Direction Model (MDM) switched to a BUY signal on Tuesday, August 4, 2026.