We have been following various semiconductors on the way up since early April, and they continue to post fresh long entry set-ups as they go parabolic. This is quite amazing to watch, but the entries are concrete. For example, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) was actionable on the long side as it pushed through and held the $400 Century Mark and Micron Technology (MU) at the $700 level. Nvidia (NVDA) was actionable as an MAU&R at the 20-dema on Wednesday while Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) posted a pocket pivot at the 10-dma on Wednesday and then a supporting pocket pivot at the line on Friday as it also held the $400 Century Mark, another long entry point.
On Friday we reported on AST Spacemobile (ASTS) as a bottom-fishing pocket pivot (BFPP) at the 200-dma. This was essentially a sympathy move to Rocket Lab (RKLB) earnings on Friday. Keep in mind that ASTS is expected to report earnings on Monday after the close, so it makes more sense to sit back and wait for earnings to come out. This may generate and actionable follow-up set-up for the stock which can be monitored once earnings are out.
We also reported on IREN Ltd. (IREN), Cipher Mining (CIFR), Bloom Energy (BE) and telecom/semiconductor Lumentum (LITE). IREN is discussed in detail below, while CIFR is extended and can only be bought closer to the rising 10-dma. BE failed on a prior BGU and is now back below the 10-dma while LITE is holding the 20-dema and the $900 Century Mark which may serve as a long entry point. If it fails to hold the 20-dema and the $900 level it could play out as a short-sale target so this should also be watched for depending on how the stock plays out from here.
While IREN gapped higher on Friday after reporting earnings and a partnership with Nvidia (NVDA) it still ended the day a massive-volume stalling range as it reversed along the prior late February high. The move occurred from an already extended position so profit-taking into the move is apparent here. IREN reported earnings and missed on both revenues which fell 21.6% year/year to $144.8 million vs the $219.69 million FactSet Consensus and net income (loss) of $(247.8)m (vs. Q2 FY26 $(155.4)m) also fell short. It also failed to generate any significant upside momentum despite announcing a five-year, $3.4 billion AI infrastructure cloud services contract with NVDA. Under the agreement, IREN will provide NVDA with access to managed GPU cloud services for its internal AI and research workloads, including orchestration and cluster management software in collaboration with Mirantis. This may all have been more of a sell-the-news situation for IREN so it remains to be seen whether the stock can maintain the upside momentum seen over the past week or so.
On Thursday we reported on CrowdStrike (CRWD) and Palo Alto Networks (PANW) as potential buyable gap-ups (BGUs) but volume fell short. The moves actually played out as gap-up pocket pivots (GUPPs), a new set-up that can be treated as a BGU in that the intraday low of the gap-up day can be used as a selling guide. As can be seen, these have so far worked out as the stocks continued higher on Friday.
On Wednesday we reported on ArcelorMittal (MT), Nano Nuclear Energy (NNE), Pan-American Silver (PAAS) and Teck Resources (TECK) as potential buyable gap-ups (BGUs) MT is faltering on its BGU while NNE, which is expected to report earnings this week, is well extended from the intraday low of Wednesday's BGU range and can only be bought on pullbacks closer to the rising 10-dma/20-dema. PAAS followed-through on its Wednesday gap-up, despite not trading enough volume for a BGU, and then cleared the 50-dma on Thursday where it closed on Friday. TECK continued to push higher on Friday after posting a BGU on Wednesday that started to fail on Thursday.
Cloudflare (NET) was reported on Tuesday as a buyable gap-up (BGU) but blew up after reporting earnings Thursday after the close. This underscores the fact that buying stocks that are extended through earnings can be dangerous. While the BGU move was profitable for three days running, earnings roulette came into play on Friday, erasing all the gains and more. Always review positions for potential upcoming earnings release dates and be wary of chasing stocks that are already in extended runs off prior lows.
The Market Direction Model (MDM) remains on a BUY signal.- Gil Morales