Market Timing Results -

Current signal as of January 25th, 2012:

This page shows up-to-date market timing data.

IndexMarket Direction Model Trading Return 2000 - 2010Buy-and-Hold Return 2000 - 2010
NASDAQ Composite+741.1% (conservative approach using NO leverage)-34.8%
2011 (Jan 1 - May 31)+46.8%general trading using all services including the market timing service
during this period of a choppy, go-nowhere market
2009 - 2011 (3 years)+454%Using only market timing service ETF TNA with NO margin
vs. NASDAQ Composite (buy-and-hold) 79.6%
2009 - 2011 ( 3years)+444%Using only market timing service ETF TYH with NO margin
vs. NASDAQ Composite (buy-and-hold) 79.6%
Stock market timing - Dr K Market Direction Model performance
GRAPHICAL EXAMPLE OF THE MODEL'S BUY, SELL, AND NEUTRAL SIGNALS:
thy Chart
To give investors a better idea of how the market direction model works, here is a one-year example of buy, sell, and neutral signals issued by the model on the 3-times ETF TYH. From March 12, 2009 - May 14, 2010, the market direction model was up +183.9% going 100% long TYH on a buy signal, 100% short TYH on a sell signal, and 100% cash on a neutral signal. You can see the exact dates of these signals in the TYH table Timing Model profit/loss on TYH shown below. Note, the model's fail safes kicked in which minimized losses while the gains made during the trends more than made up for the small losses. Of course, due to the highly aggressive nature of this account, drawdowns as high as -18.5% were not unusual but that is the price to pay to get to +183.9%. Note, had you been using a 1-times ETF, your gains would be roughly 1/3 of those shown, but your drawdowns would also be roughly 1/3 of -18.5%, or -6.1%
You will notice in the tables below how the Market Direction Model's gains on a true signal more than make up for the small losses. You should notice that a string of small losses can occur during trendless, volatile periods which are the most challenging not just for the model but also for traders and investors who are attempting to buy or short individual stocks. Such a period has characterized much of 2011. Fortunately, such periods always come to an end, new trends begin, and the model's gains in catching these trends have always more than made up for the small losses, thus, the model's long term returns average out to be about +33%/year. Had the 3-times ETFs that exist today existed from inception, the model's long term returns using 3-times ETFs would probably be 3-times its long term +33%/year average, or roughly +99%/year. Keep in mind that the drawdowns in getting such a return would also be 3-times as great, so position size accordingly and know your risk tolerance levels.
Timing Model profit/loss on NASDAQ Composite - Annualized return July 1974 - present: +32.84 % / year [100% long Nasdaq Composite on buy signal, 100% short Nasdaq Composite on sell signal, 100% cash on neutral signal]
DateSignal% gain / loss$1 becomes
01-25-2012Buy5.2344039.86
12-27-2011Cash 41849.64
12-18-2011Sell-2.3841849.64
12-14-2011Cash 42869.35
12-02-2011Buy-3.1242869.35
11-11-2011Cash 44247.78
11-10-2011Sell-2.4944247.78
11-01-2011Cash 45377.88
10-27-2011Buy-1.6445377.88
10-20-2011Cash 46132.52
10-19-2011Buy-2.3946132.52
10-07-2011Cash 47264.38
10-05-2011Buy2.9447264.38
08-31-2011Sell6.1245914.9
08-31-2011Cash 43265.61
08-26-2011Buy3.2843265.61
08-23-2011Cash 41889.81
08-16-2011Sell3.2641889.81
08-11-2011Cash 40565.57
08-02-2011Sell11.6540565.57
07-27-2011Cash 36334.08
07-13-2011Buy-1.4336334.08
07-12-2011Cash 36859.33
07-11-2011Buy-0.9736859.33
06-27-2011Cash 37221.4
06-22-2011Sell-0.8237221.4
06-21-2011Buy-0.1137530.41
05-31-2011Cash 37572.55
05-05-2011Sell-0.9737572.55
03-24-2011Buy2.5437941.42
03-16-2011Cash 37001.4
03-15-2011Buy-0.6137001.4
03-08-2011Sell3.6537227.62
03-03-2011Buy-2.3635915.99
02-23-2011Cash 36782.61
02-01-2011Buy-0.0636782.61
01-31-2011Sell-2.5236803.47
01-20-2011Cash 37753.57
01-12-2011Buy0.3137753.57
12-10-2010Cash 37635.41
12-08-2010Sell-1.1237635.41
12-07-2010Buy-1.0438060.59
12-01-2010Cash 38458.64
11-16-2010Sell-3.1238458.64
09-01-2010Buy13.9739696.58
08-11-2010Sell3.0234831.03
07-07-2010Cash 33808.87
06-30-2010Sell-1.5633808.87
06-07-2010Cash 34343.21
05-25-2010Buy0.0634343.21
04-28-2010Sell10.3134322.25
04-22-2010Cash 31115.41
04-19-2010Sell-1.9931115.41
03-01-2010Buy8.5131745.95
02-18-2010Cash 29256.85
01-27-2010Sell-1.5329256.85
01-07-2010Cash 29711.58
Expand Table
*As of 02-21-2012
Timing Model profit/loss on TNA - 3x ETF Direxion Small Cap Bull (Russell 2000) - Annualized return March 2009 - present: +84.52 % / year [100% long TNA on buy signal, 100% short TNA on sell signal, 100% cash on neutral signal]
DateSignal% gain / loss$1 becomes
01-25-2012Buy14.396.34
12-27-2011Cash 5.54
12-18-2011Sell-8.875.54
12-14-2011Cash 6.08
12-02-2011Buy-11.236.08
11-11-2011Cash 6.85
11-10-2011Sell-10.946.85
11-01-2011Cash 7.69
10-27-2011Buy-7.057.69
10-20-2011Cash 8.27
10-19-2011Buy-9.238.27
10-07-2011Cash 9.11
10-05-2011Buy4.089.11
08-31-2011Sell31.228.75
08-31-2011Cash 6.67
08-26-2011Buy14.796.67
08-23-2011Cash 5.81
08-16-2011Sell12.365.81
08-11-2011Cash 5.17
08-02-2011Sell42.465.17
07-27-2011Cash 3.63
07-13-2011Buy-12.823.63
07-12-2011Cash 4.16
07-11-2011Buy-2.844.16
06-27-2011Cash 4.28
06-22-2011Sell-1.324.28
06-21-2011Buy-14.34
05-31-2011Cash 4.38
05-05-2011Sell-6.774.38
03-24-2011Buy3.824.7
03-16-2011Cash 4.53
03-15-2011Buy-1.494.53
03-08-2011Sell10.864.6
03-03-2011Buy-74.15
02-23-2011Cash 4.46
02-01-2011Buy6.054.46
01-31-2011Sell-7.974.21
01-20-2011Cash 4.57
01-12-2011Buy-3.084.57
12-10-2010Cash 4.72
12-08-2010Sell-3.44.72
12-07-2010Buy-1.594.89
12-01-2010Cash 4.96
11-16-2010Sell-14.864.96
09-01-2010Buy44.165.83
08-11-2010Sell6.174.04
07-07-2010Cash 3.81
06-30-2010Sell1.083.81
06-07-2010Cash 3.77
05-25-2010Buy-6.813.77
04-28-2010Sell31.214.04
04-22-2010Cash 3.08
04-19-2010Sell-3.083.08
03-01-2010Buy35.533.18
02-18-2010Cash 2.35
01-27-2010Sell-7.312.35
01-07-2010Cash 2.53
Expand Table
*As of 02-21-2012
Timing Model profit/loss on TYH - 3x ETF Direxion Tech Bull - Annualized return March 2009 - present:
+83.32 % / year [100% long TYH on buy signal, 100% short TYH on sell signal, 100% cash on neutral signal]
DateSignal% gain / loss$1 becomes
01-25-2012Buy19.046.48
12-27-2011Cash 5.44
12-18-2011Sell-5.645.44
12-14-2011Cash 5.77
12-02-2011Buy-8.45.77
11-11-2011Cash 6.3
11-10-2011Sell-7.776.3
11-01-2011Cash 6.83
10-27-2011Buy-3.836.83
10-20-2011Cash 7.1
10-19-2011Buy-6.487.1
10-07-2011Cash 7.59
10-05-2011Buy11.267.59
08-31-2011Sell10.786.82
08-31-2011Cash 6.16
08-26-2011Buy8.236.16
08-23-2011Cash 5.69
08-16-2011Sell14.775.69
08-11-2011Cash 4.96
08-02-2011Sell29.884.96
07-27-2011Cash 3.82
07-13-2011Buy1.213.82
07-12-2011Cash 3.77
07-11-2011Buy-2.393.77
06-27-2011Cash 3.86
06-22-2011Sell-2.393.86
06-21-2011Buy-13.95
05-31-2011Cash 3.99
05-05-2011Sell0.843.99
03-24-2011Buy4.483.96
03-16-2011Cash 3.79
03-15-2011Buy-1.623.79
03-08-2011Sell12.843.85
03-03-2011Buy-7.63.41
02-23-2011Cash 3.69
02-01-2011Buy-3.663.69
01-31-2011Sell-8.343.83
01-20-2011Cash 4.18
01-12-2011Buy3.764.18
12-10-2010Cash 4.03
12-08-2010Sell-2.784.03
12-07-2010Buy-2.794.14
12-01-2010Cash 4.26
11-16-2010Sell-8.074.26
09-01-2010Buy46.544.63
08-11-2010Sell12.073.16
07-07-2010Cash 2.82
06-30-2010Sell-8.522.82
06-07-2010Cash 3.08
05-25-2010Buy-1.743.08
04-28-2010Sell27.573.13
04-22-2010Cash 2.45
04-19-2010Sell-2.992.45
03-01-2010Buy20.792.53
02-18-2010Cash 2.09
01-27-2010Sell-1.042.09
01-07-2010Cash 2.11
Expand Table
*As of 02-21-2012
Buy & Hold NASDAQ Composite (month-to-month) - Annualized return July 1974 - present: +10.37 % / year
Date% gain / loss$1 becomes
01-31-20124.942.15
12-30-20118.0140.18
11-30-2011-0.5837.2
10-31-2011-2.3937.42
09-30-201111.1438.34
08-31-2011-6.3634.5
07-29-2011-6.4236.84
06-30-2011-0.6239.37
05-31-2011-2.1839.61
04-29-2011-1.3340.49
Expand Table
*As of 02-21-2012