Market Timing Results

IndexMarket Direction Model Trading Return 2000 - 2010Buy-and-Hold Return 2000 - 2010
NASDAQ Composite+741.1% (conservative approach using NO leverage)-34.8%
2011 (Jan 1 - May 31)+46.8%Example using all services including the market timing service during a very challenging period of a choppy, go-nowhere market
2009 - 2012 (4 years)+402%Performance of Market Direction Model using only market timing service ETF TECL with NO margin vs. S&P 500 57.9% (buy-and-hold) and vs. NASDAQ Composite (buy-and-hold) 91.4%
Note: All data shown below are delayed by up to two months for non-members.

Members receive emails in real-time whenever the model switches signals. We include a list of Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) we think are best bought at the time of the switch in signal. The list of ETFs we give with the model signal act as an array of ETFs from which subscribers can choose to purchase at the time of a change in signal, based on their own leverage and specific vehicle preference. Note, the graphs below show over 35 years worth of data on the X-axis so even the smallest blip in the graph may represent a month or two of data.

Members also receive emails in real-time on all of our stock buy, pyramid, sell, and short suggestions so they can immediately take action. If you are a member, please log in to view the latest market timing signal and all past reports with no time delay. If you have any questions, contact us, and we will quickly respond.
Stock market timing - Dr K Market Direction Model performance
GRAPHICAL EXAMPLE OF THE MODEL'S BUY, SELL, AND NEUTRAL SIGNALS:
thy Chart
To give investors a better idea of how the market direction model works, here is a one-year example of buy, sell, and neutral signals issued by the model on the 3-times ETF TYH (ticker changed to TECL June 29, 2012). From March 12, 2009 - May 14, 2010, the market direction model was up +183.9% going 100% long TYH on a buy signal, 100% short TYH on a sell signal, and 100% cash on a neutral signal. You can see the exact dates of these signals in the TYH table Timing Model profit/loss on TYH shown below. Note, the model's fail safes kicked in which minimized losses while the gains made during the trends more than made up for the small losses. Of course, due to the highly aggressive nature of this account, drawdowns as high as -18.5% were not unusual but that is the price to pay to get to +183.9%. Note, had you been using a 1-times ETF, your gains would be roughly 1/3 of those shown, but your drawdowns would also be roughly 1/3 of -18.5%, or -6.1%

You will notice in the tables below how the Market Direction Model's gains on a true signal more than make up for the small losses. You should notice that a string of small losses can occur during trendless, volatile periods which are the most challenging not just for the model but also for traders and investors who are attempting to buy or short individual stocks. Such a period has characterized much of 2012-2013 which has been the toughest period so far for market timing and market timing models, let alone the trendless volatile markets of 2011. Indeed, market timing strategies have been well underperforming the general markets. Being down for year 2013 has become the status quo when it comes to market timing ETFs. Indeed, the trend following wizards which are a group of top fund managers who have been interviewed in books such as Michael Covel's Trend Following and Jack Schwager's Market Wizards series are collectively down once again so far in 2013. This is unprecedented in the long histories of these elite fund managers which sometimes exceed 30 years. Most recent results of these wizards are shown here.

Fortunately, such periods always come to an end, new trends begin, and the model's gains in catching these trends have more than made up for the small losses, thus, the model's long term returns average out to be over +30%/year. Had the 3-times ETFs that exist today existed from inception, the model's long term returns using 3-times ETFs would probably be 3-times its long term +30%/year average, or roughly +90%/year. Keep in mind that the drawdowns in getting such a return would also be 3-times as great, so position size accordingly and know your risk tolerance levels.

Timing Model profit/loss on NASDAQ Composite - Annualized return July 1974 - May 2014: +30.31 % / year [100% long Nasdaq Composite on buy signal, 100% short Nasdaq Composite on sell signal, 100% cash on neutral signal]
DateSignal% gain / loss$1 becomes
05-13-2014 Buy5.0439109.73
04-09-2014 Sell-0.3537233.34
04-07-2014 Cash 37365.2
04-04-2014 Buy-3.5937365.2
03-24-2014 Cash 38756.04
02-12-2014 Buy0.5138756.04
02-03-2014 Sell-3.2738560.43
10-17-2013 Buy6.339864.8
10-07-2013 Cash 37500.41
09-09-2013 Buy1.9737500.41
08-27-2013 Cash 36776.64
08-26-2013 Buy-1.9436776.64
08-20-2013 Sell-1.9737505.26
08-15-2013 Cash 38257.92
08-13-2013 Buy-1.4138257.92
08-08-2013 Cash 38806.15
07-10-2013 Buy4.5138806.15
07-09-2013 Cash 37131.38
07-05-2013 Sell-1.0237131.38
06-24-2013 Cash 37513.17
06-18-2013 Buy-4.3537513.17
05-23-2013 Cash 39220.55
04-24-2013 Buy4.9339220.55
04-24-2013 Cash 37376.67
04-23-2013 Sell0.1637376.67
04-10-2013 Buy0.5637315.98
04-03-2013 Cash 37109.73
03-05-2013 Buy-0.437109.73
03-05-2013 Cash 37259.27
02-25-2013 Sell-2.4637259.27
12-17-2012 Buy3.7738199.34
12-13-2012 Cash 36812.72
12-11-2012 Buy-0.6136812.72
11-29-2012 Cash 37040.3
11-07-2012 Sell-1.2837040.3
11-01-2012 Cash 37521.98
10-18-2012 Sell2.2137521.98
10-15-2012 Cash 36711.15
08-14-2012 Buy0.5236711.15
08-07-2012 Cash 36521.38
08-02-2012 Sell-3.8236521.38
07-26-2012 Buy0.1337971.94
07-25-2012 Cash 37921.41
07-25-2012 Buy-0.4137921.41
07-18-2012 Cash 38076.96
07-11-2012 Sell-2.2438076.96
07-11-2012 Cash 38950.71
06-29-2012 Buy-1.0338950.71
06-29-2012 Cash 39355.36
06-25-2012 Sell-1.6339355.36
06-21-2012 Cash 40005.88
06-20-2012 Buy-2.0440005.88
06-14-2012 Cash 40837.82
06-07-2012 Sell0.2440837.82
06-05-2012 Cash 40739.95
05-09-2012 Sell5.7140739.95
05-06-2012 Cash 38539.66
04-26-2012 Buy-2.9438539.66
04-20-2012 Cash 39708.93
04-19-2012 Sell0.0739708.93
04-12-2012 Cash 39682.72
04-10-2012 Sell-1.2839682.72
04-04-2012 Cash 40199.02
03-13-2012 Buy0.540199.02
03-08-2012 Cash 40000.06
03-06-2012 Sell-2.2740000.06
01-25-2012 Buy3.640931.11
12-27-2011 Cash 39509.6
12-18-2011 Sell-2.3839509.6
12-14-2011 Cash 40472.29
12-02-2011 Buy-3.1240472.29
11-11-2011 Cash 41773.65
11-10-2011 Sell-2.4941773.65
11-01-2011 Cash 42840.56
10-27-2011 Buy-1.6442840.56
10-20-2011 Cash 43553.01
10-19-2011 Buy-2.3943553.01
10-07-2011 Cash 44621.58
10-05-2011 Buy2.9444621.58
08-31-2011 Sell6.1243347.55
08-31-2011 Cash 40846.39
08-26-2011 Buy3.2840846.39
08-23-2011 Cash 39547.52
08-16-2011 Sell3.2639547.52
08-11-2011 Cash 38297.32
08-02-2011 Sell11.6538297.32
07-27-2011 Cash 34302.43
07-13-2011 Buy-1.4334302.43
07-12-2011 Cash 34798.31
07-11-2011 Buy-0.9734798.31
06-27-2011 Cash 35140.13
06-22-2011 Sell-0.8235140.13
06-21-2011 Buy-0.1135431.86
05-31-2011 Cash 35471.64
05-05-2011 Sell-0.9735471.64
03-24-2011 Buy2.5435819.89
03-16-2011 Cash 34932.43
03-15-2011 Buy-0.6134932.43
03-08-2011 Sell3.6535146
03-03-2011 Buy-2.3633907.71
02-23-2011 Cash 34725.87
02-01-2011 Buy-0.0634725.87
01-31-2011 Sell-2.5234745.56
01-20-2011 Cash 35642.53
01-12-2011 Buy0.3135642.53
12-10-2010 Cash 35530.97
12-08-2010 Sell-1.1235530.97
12-07-2010 Buy-1.0435932.37
12-01-2010 Cash 36308.17
11-16-2010 Sell-3.1236308.17
09-01-2010 Buy13.9737476.89
08-11-2010 Sell3.0232883.4
07-07-2010 Cash 31918.4
06-30-2010 Sell-1.5631918.4
06-07-2010 Cash 32422.86
05-25-2010 Buy0.0632422.86
04-28-2010 Sell10.3132403.07
04-22-2010 Cash 29375.54
04-19-2010 Sell-1.9929375.54
03-01-2010 Buy8.5129970.83
02-18-2010 Cash 27620.91
01-27-2010 Sell-1.5327620.91
01-07-2010 Cash 28050.21
Earlier resultsspinner

Dr K UVXY: Note, further refinements have been made recently (as of 4/23/14). Keep in mind that position sizing and trading around a core position is prudent, thus some signals were highly profitable at certain points such as the sell signal on 10/17/13 shown here which was up more than 50% at one point, thus some members have rules to take partial profits when a UVXY signal reaches certain percentage gains such as 20%, 30%, etc, and trading around a core position is also a good strategy since UVXY tends to trend lower so a core short position in 2-times UVXY (or a core long position in 1-times inverse XIV) are viable strategies.

After rigorous ongoing research into UVXY in the Dr. K laboratory, we will issue buy, cash, and sell signals on UVXY when the odds are deemed favorable. Since UVXY sometimes does not correlate with the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), other variables were used in conjunction with the VIX such as institutional money flow in leading, high relative strength, super cap (>$20 billion) stocks.

Note: Dr K UVXY is still a work in progress. The table below shows how the model has performed in real-time with the first three signals from 4-19-12 to 4-27-12 representing TVIX, and all subsequent signals representing UVXY, simply because UVXY has been found to inversely correlate more smoothly with market direction. The first signal is a cash signal, meaning to do nothing until the model switches to either a buy or a sell. As with all our services, members receive real-time updates via email whenever there is a change in signal.

DateSignal% gain / loss$1 becomes
05-13-2014 Sell39.750.61
05-06-2014 Buy-13.740.44
05-02-2014 Sell0.280.51
04-30-2014 Buy-2.170.51
04-23-2014 **Sell3.660.52
04-09-2014 Buy-3.590.5
04-04-2014 Sell-7.070.52
03-24-2014 Cash 0.56
02-12-2014 Sell-5.520.56
02-03-2014 Buy-32.510.59
10-17-2013 Sell17.970.87
08-27-2013 Cash 0.74
08-26-2013 Sell-22.820.74
08-20-2013 Buy-9.940.96
08-15-2013 Cash 1.07
08-13-2013 Sell-9.641.07
08-08-2013 Cash 1.18
07-10-2013 Sell34.211.18
07-05-2013 Buy-18.580.88
06-18-2013 Sell7.311.08
05-23-2013 Cash 1.01
04-24-2013 Sell-5.421.01
04-24-2013 Cash 1.07
04-23-2013 Buy-1.381.07
04-10-2013 Sell6.291.09
04-03-2013 Cash 1.03
03-25-2013 Sell-3.021.03
03-05-2013 Cash 1.06
02-28-2013 Buy-8.541.06
02-27-2013 Cash 1.16
02-25-2013 Buy-19.121.16
01-10-2013 Sell12.831.44
12-26-2012 Cash 1.28
12-17-2012 Sell-28.611.28
12-14-2012 Cash 1.79
12-12-2012 Sell-11.741.79
11-14-2012 Cash 2.03
11-12-2012 Sell10.722.03
11-07-2012 Buy5.461.83
11-01-2012 Cash 1.74
10-18-2012 Buy16.821.74
09-05-2012 Sell48.841.49
There are no earlier results
** Further critical adjustments made to the model

Note, while the returns in the backtests resulted in MASSIVE gains in the high triple digit percentage range since inception of the TVIX (Nov 30, 2010) to the end of the backtest (April 10, 2012), a VERY HIGH RISK had to be expected. Indeed, losses as high as -38.2% on one signal were recorded, the largest drawdown over a series of signals was -56.6%, and larger drawdowns are possible in the future. To deal with this issue, a maximum loss fail-safe of -19% is in place which reduced the maximum drawdown over a series of signals to -33.6%. This means that on any given signal, the maximum loss should be roughly -19% while the maximum loss across a series of signals so far has been -33.6%. Of course, past testing never guarantees future performance as larger drawdowns are possible in the future

Nevertheless, it is ESSENTIAL that one position sizes with care when using these signals. We would suggest either using only a small amount of your capital, such as 20% maximum, or pyramiding a position starting with an even smaller amount of capital, then allowing yourself a larger maximum % only when you have sufficient gains in your position.

Timing Model profit/loss on TECL (formerly TYH) - 3x ETF Direxion Tech Bull - Annualized return March 2009 - May 2014:
+32.9 % / year [100% long TECL on buy signal, 100% short TECL on sell signal, 100% cash on neutral signal]
DateSignal% gain / loss$1 becomes
05-13-2014 Buy13.914.83
04-09-2014 Sell-5.264.24
04-07-2014 Cash 4.48
04-04-2014 Buy-94.48
03-24-2014 Cash 4.92
02-12-2014 Buy4.554.92
02-03-2014 Sell-10.034.71
10-17-2013 Buy20.295.24
10-07-2013 Cash 4.36
09-09-2013 Buy0.644.36
08-27-2013 Cash 4.33
08-26-2013 Buy-5.724.33
08-20-2013 Sell-3.014.59
08-15-2013 Cash 4.73
08-13-2013 Buy-3.414.73
08-08-2013 Cash 4.9
07-10-2013 Buy7.864.9
07-09-2013 Cash 4.54
07-05-2013 Sell-0.934.54
06-24-2013 Cash 4.58
06-18-2013 Buy-14.164.58
05-23-2013 Cash 5.33
04-24-2013 Buy17.245.33
04-24-2013 Cash 4.55
04-23-2013 Sell1.614.55
04-10-2013 Buy-3.314.48
04-03-2013 Cash 4.63
03-05-2013 Buy-1.734.63
03-05-2013 Cash 4.71
02-25-2013 Sell-6.24.71
12-17-2012 Buy3.565.02
12-13-2012 Cash 4.85
12-11-2012 Buy-2.384.85
11-29-2012 Cash 4.97
11-07-2012 Sell-2.684.97
11-01-2012 Cash 5.11
10-18-2012 Sell7.745.11
10-15-2012 Cash 4.74
08-14-2012 Buy-3.214.74
08-07-2012 Cash 4.9
08-02-2012 Sell-10.494.9
07-26-2012 Buy3.745.47
07-25-2012 Cash 5.27
07-25-2012 Buy-0.975.27
07-18-2012 Cash 5.32
07-11-2012 Sell-7.335.32
07-11-2012 Cash 5.74
06-29-2012 Buy-4.385.74
06-29-2012 Cash 6
06-25-2012 Sell-2.176
06-21-2012 Cash 6.13
06-20-2012 Buy-6.736.13
06-14-2012 Cash 6.57
06-07-2012 Sell3.56.57
06-05-2012 Cash 6.35
05-09-2012 Sell18.836.35
05-06-2012 Cash 5.34
04-26-2012 Buy-11.35.34
04-20-2012 Cash 6.02
04-19-2012 Sell1.136.02
04-12-2012 Cash 5.95
04-10-2012 Sell-2.675.95
04-04-2012 Cash 6.11
03-13-2012 Buy3.586.11
03-08-2012 Cash 5.9
03-06-2012 Sell-6.695.9
01-25-2012 Buy16.136.32
12-27-2011 Cash 5.44
12-18-2011 Sell-5.645.44
12-14-2011 Cash 5.77
12-02-2011 Buy-8.45.77
11-11-2011 Cash 6.3
11-10-2011 Sell-7.776.3
11-01-2011 Cash 6.83
10-27-2011 Buy-3.836.83
10-20-2011 Cash 7.1
10-19-2011 Buy-6.487.1
10-07-2011 Cash 7.59
10-05-2011 Buy11.267.59
08-31-2011 Sell10.786.82
08-31-2011 Cash 6.16
08-26-2011 Buy8.236.16
08-23-2011 Cash 5.69
08-16-2011 Sell14.775.69
08-11-2011 Cash 4.96
08-02-2011 Sell29.884.96
07-27-2011 Cash 3.82
07-13-2011 Buy1.213.82
07-12-2011 Cash 3.77
07-11-2011 Buy-2.393.77
06-27-2011 Cash 3.86
06-22-2011 Sell-2.393.86
06-21-2011 Buy-13.95
05-31-2011 Cash 3.99
05-05-2011 Sell0.843.99
03-24-2011 Buy4.483.96
03-16-2011 Cash 3.79
03-15-2011 Buy-1.623.79
03-08-2011 Sell12.843.85
03-03-2011 Buy-7.63.41
02-23-2011 Cash 3.69
02-01-2011 Buy-3.663.69
01-31-2011 Sell-8.343.83
01-20-2011 Cash 4.18
01-12-2011 Buy3.764.18
12-10-2010 Cash 4.03
12-08-2010 Sell-2.784.03
12-07-2010 Buy-2.794.14
12-01-2010 Cash 4.26
11-16-2010 Sell-8.074.26
09-01-2010 Buy46.544.63
08-11-2010 Sell12.073.16
07-07-2010 Cash 2.82
06-30-2010 Sell-8.522.82
06-07-2010 Cash 3.08
05-25-2010 Buy-1.743.08
04-28-2010 Sell27.573.13
04-22-2010 Cash 2.45
04-19-2010 Sell-2.992.45
03-01-2010 Buy20.792.53
02-18-2010 Cash 2.09
01-27-2010 Sell-1.042.09
01-07-2010 Cash 2.11
Earlier resultsspinner
Timing Model profit/loss on TNA - 3x ETF Direxion Small Cap Bull (Russell 2000) - Annualized return March 2009 - May 2014: +24.63 % / year [100% long TNA on buy signal, 100% short TNA on sell signal, 100% cash on neutral signal]. This table is an excellent example of how choice of ETF is important. You will notice that TNA can have severe drawdowns, sometimes going through periods of outperformance or underperformance relative to the other 3-times ETFs that track the major averages such as NASDAQ and S&P 500. Its sharp gains and drawdowns are illustrative of this particular ETF and not of the Market Direction Model (MDM) itself in that we recommend ETFs with each change in signal to help guide our members. As one example, TECL (formerly TYH) and NASDAQ Composite had small gains as a result of the March 13, 2012 buy signal, but TNA had a loss. We did not recommend any Russell 2000 equivalent ETFs such as TNA on this March 13 buy signal.
DateSignal% gain / loss$1 becomes
05-13-2014 Buy4.243.19
04-09-2014 Sell4.83.06
04-07-2014 Cash 2.92
04-04-2014 Buy-10.012.92
03-24-2014 Cash 3.25
02-12-2014 Buy12.23.25
02-03-2014 Sell-3.262.9
10-17-2013 Buy5.153
10-07-2013 Cash 2.85
09-09-2013 Buy6.52.85
08-27-2013 Cash 2.68
08-26-2013 Buy-5.62.68
08-20-2013 Sell-7.632.84
08-15-2013 Cash 3.08
08-13-2013 Buy-5.183.08
08-08-2013 Cash 3.25
07-10-2013 Buy8.643.25
07-09-2013 Cash 2.99
07-05-2013 Sell-5.052.99
06-24-2013 Cash 3.15
06-18-2013 Buy-12.123.15
05-23-2013 Cash 3.58
04-24-2013 Buy13.373.58
04-24-2013 Cash 3.16
04-23-2013 Sell-1.123.16
04-10-2013 Buy-2.53.2
04-03-2013 Cash 3.28
03-05-2013 Buy-3.363.28
03-05-2013 Cash 3.39
02-25-2013 Sell-8.93.39
12-17-2012 Buy23.273.72
12-13-2012 Cash 3.02
12-11-2012 Buy-2.143.02
11-29-2012 Cash 3.09
11-07-2012 Sell-2.473.09
11-01-2012 Cash 3.17
10-18-2012 Sell4.333.17
10-15-2012 Cash 3.04
08-14-2012 Buy7.853.04
08-07-2012 Cash 2.82
08-02-2012 Sell-14.812.82
07-26-2012 Buy-4.913.31
07-25-2012 Cash 3.48
07-25-2012 Buy-1.883.48
07-18-2012 Cash 3.55
07-11-2012 Sell-6.213.55
07-11-2012 Cash 3.78
06-29-2012 Buy-1.043.78
06-29-2012 Cash 3.82
06-25-2012 Sell-12.33.82
06-21-2012 Cash 4.36
06-20-2012 Buy-7.414.36
06-14-2012 Cash 4.71
06-07-2012 Sell-0.494.71
06-05-2012 Cash 4.73
05-09-2012 Sell17.844.73
05-06-2012 Cash 4.01
04-26-2012 Buy-8.124.01
04-20-2012 Cash 4.36
04-19-2012 Sell-1.354.36
04-12-2012 Cash 4.42
04-10-2012 Sell-8.544.42
04-04-2012 Cash 4.83
03-13-2012 Buy-5.074.83
03-08-2012 Cash 5.09
03-06-2012 Sell-6.675.09
01-25-2012 Buy-1.585.45
12-27-2011 Cash 5.54
12-18-2011 Sell-8.875.54
12-14-2011 Cash 6.08
12-02-2011 Buy-11.236.08
11-11-2011 Cash 6.85
11-10-2011 Sell-10.946.85
11-01-2011 Cash 7.69
10-27-2011 Buy-7.057.69
10-20-2011 Cash 8.27
10-19-2011 Buy-9.238.27
10-07-2011 Cash 9.11
10-05-2011 Buy4.089.11
08-31-2011 Sell31.228.75
08-31-2011 Cash 6.67
08-26-2011 Buy14.796.67
08-23-2011 Cash 5.81
08-16-2011 Sell12.365.81
08-11-2011 Cash 5.17
08-02-2011 Sell42.465.17
07-27-2011 Cash 3.63
07-13-2011 Buy-12.823.63
07-12-2011 Cash 4.16
07-11-2011 Buy-2.844.16
06-27-2011 Cash 4.28
06-22-2011 Sell-1.324.28
06-21-2011 Buy-14.34
05-31-2011 Cash 4.38
05-05-2011 Sell-6.774.38
03-24-2011 Buy3.824.7
03-16-2011 Cash 4.53
03-15-2011 Buy-1.494.53
03-08-2011 Sell10.864.6
03-03-2011 Buy-74.15
02-23-2011 Cash 4.46
02-01-2011 Buy6.054.46
01-31-2011 Sell-7.974.21
01-20-2011 Cash 4.57
01-12-2011 Buy-3.084.57
12-10-2010 Cash 4.72
12-08-2010 Sell-3.44.72
12-07-2010 Buy-1.594.89
12-01-2010 Cash 4.96
11-16-2010 Sell-14.864.96
09-01-2010 Buy44.165.83
08-11-2010 Sell6.174.04
07-07-2010 Cash 3.81
06-30-2010 Sell1.083.81
06-07-2010 Cash 3.77
05-25-2010 Buy-6.813.77
04-28-2010 Sell31.214.04
04-22-2010 Cash 3.08
04-19-2010 Sell-3.083.08
03-01-2010 Buy35.533.18
02-18-2010 Cash 2.35
01-27-2010 Sell-7.312.35
01-07-2010 Cash 2.53
Earlier resultsspinner
Buy & Hold NASDAQ Composite (month-to-month) - Annualized return July 1974 - June 2014: +10.95 % / year
Date% gain / loss$1 becomes
06-30-2014 0.0762.96*
05-31-2014 3.962.92
04-30-2014 3.1160.56
03-31-2014 -2.0158.73
02-28-2014 -2.5359.94
01-31-2014 4.9861.5
12-31-2013 -1.7458.58
11-30-2013 2.8759.62
10-31-2013 3.5857.95
09-30-2013 3.9355.95
Earlier resultsspinner
*As of 07-31-2014 (intraday or end of day, depending)