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Market Direction Model - Model switches to BUY on June 13, 2019

MDM has switched to a BUY signal. CME Fed Futures predict 3 more rate reductions of 25 basis points over the next 5 Fed meetings. Thus by the Fed meeting on December 11, 2019, there will have been 3 rate reductions. The dovish stance taken by the Federal Reserve and other central banks around the world will ultimately be bullish overall for the world's tallest standing midget, the U.S. stock market. 

Any further weakness due to the trade wars is likely to be met with additional quantitative easing. QE has been the market's safety net since 2009. It should remain as such for reasons I wrote HERE though should conditions materially deteriorate, we will see it in the chart patterns and switch out of the buy signal. Trying to predict the bursting of the debt bubble, should it burst, is futile. Trying to predict the bursting of any bubble is futile. It is far more accurate to keep a close eye on price/volume action in major indices and stocks. In March 2000, I had no idea that was the market top but I was back in cash 3 days off the March top. Same for most of O'Neil's stable of top ranked portfolio managers. Bursting bubbles take on signature price/volume action whether it's tulips, dot-coms, bitcoin, or <fill in the blank>.

Note: Due to the ongoing tug-o-war between slowing economies and quantitative easing programs, the market may continue to trade in sloppy fashion as was observed for much of 2018 as QE pushes major indices reluctantly higher. As a consequence of 2018 to present day, the model has been using wider bands in terms of its signal changes to reduce the number of whipsaws. The trade off is larger loss allowances. Position size accordingly.

Suggested ETFs (Note: Many members buy the standard ETFs or their preferred ETFs. This list serves as a guide as to which ETFs we think may outperform, but the key point is to be on the right side of the market regardless of which ETF or ETFs one chooses.)

Due to potential anti-trust action against major mega cap technology companies such as Facebook, Apple, and Google, the S&P 500 carries less risk than the NASDAQ-100 at this time.


SPY (S&P 500) 


SSO (S&P 500)


UPRO (S&P 500)

NOTE: This is a suggested list. Investors may wish to become acquainted with the full range of available ETFs, and should make an effort to understand how these ETFs are created and what their components are, as well as being aware of the downside risks involved, especially with leveraged ETFs. Certain ETFs may be more appropriate depending on one's risk tolerance levels. Typing in keyword 'ETF' into the FAQ keyword search bar or going here https://www.virtueofselfishinvesting.com/faqs/search?p=1&q=etf  and visiting this site https://etfdb.com/  can be instructive.

This information is provided by MoKa Investors, LLC DBA Virtue of Selfish Investing (VoSI) is issued solely for informational purposes and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. Information contained herein is based on sources which we believe to be reliable but is not guaranteed by us as being accurate and does not purport to be a complete statement or summary of available data. VoSI reports are intended to alert VoSI members to technical developments in certain securities that may or may not be actionable, only, and are not intended as recommendations. Past performance is not a guarantee, nor is it necessarily indicative, of future results. Opinions expressed herein are statements of our judgment as of the publication date and are subject to change without notice. Entities including but not limited to VoSI, its members, officers, directors, employees, customers, agents, and affiliates may have a position, long or short, in the securities referred to herein, and/or other related securities, and may increase or decrease such position or take a contra position. Additional information is available upon written request. This publication is for clients of Virtue of Selfish Investing. Reproduction without written permission is strictly prohibited and will be prosecuted to the full extent of the law. ©2024 MoKa Investors, LLC DBA Virtue of Selfish Investing. All rights reserved.
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