Market Timing Reports Archives

IMPORTANT: The final % gain/loss column has little meaning to performance since in practice, I typically buy an outperforming coin more than once while selling coins that lag. Note that in practice with my own account over the years, I have pyramided top performers such as ETH, AAVE, SNX, YFI, LINK, ENJ, BNB, and a few other profitable coins because their price action confirmed their fundamentals. The key to outperforming in crypto is market timing. I was mostly out of the market in 2018 and short in 2022, two devastating years for those on the long side. We can go back to the hellacious bear of 2000-2002. KPMG did an audit on my stock account and showed I went to 100% cash in Mar-2000, 3 days off the top, then stayed mostly all in cash until Mar-2003. My Market Direction Model has been massively helpful in stocks as have my metrics and macros in timing cryptocurrencies. My risk profile is therefore far less. Other coins I only bought in small size such as NAS, NMR, and MCO, or did not buy at all such as DMT and MKR, so the profits made in BNB and profits made in my other holdings such as LINK, LEND, and ENJ far outweigh the small losses. Over time, the organic effect is always a concentration of capital into the better performing coins with the aim to beat out bitcoin by large amounts such as I've done in past bull markets such as in 2013 and 2017, in bear markets such as in 2018, and now again since 2019. If a coin lags within the context of its chart over a sufficient period, I cut the position by at least half. This way, capital is force fed into the strongest names. In crypto, strength begets strength.

Since bitcoin is the coin to beat over any given cycle, buying the right names takes much in-depth analysis. The risk/reward in cryptocurrencies is like no other. During bull runs, 10-fold gains are achievable while the rare 100-fold gain is possible. If you are sitting on 9 coins that die, and 1 coin is a 10-bagger, you still break even. In practice, since there is still a high degree of correlation between the best alt coins and bitcoin, odds favor more 10-baggers than zero-baggers as long as the fundamentals are on your side.

In the late 90s, dot-coms had a huge run due to institutions piling on board. The crypto space has yet to have this occur as 2017 was driven by retail money. In the current bull market, it is highly likely institutions will be a significant factor in the current crypto bull. We are 19 months into the bull market (as of June 28, 2020) with bitcoin having bottomed in Dec-2018, so another year or two of bull activity in bitcoin and the top alt coins is certainly possible given the numerous tailwinds which I have discussed in prior reports as well as the guiding light of history.

My metrics have called every major top & bottom in bitcoin since 2011 (real-time since 2013) within a few weeks of the top. The major signals come rarely but since the space remains relatively clean, sitting tight during bull markets in the right names is key to making big money. As one example, in the bear market of 2018, I was still up that year while the median performing crypto hedge fund lost -46% (PwC).

Nevertheless, DO YOUR DUE DILIGENCE ON ANY COMPANY IN WHICH YOU INVEST. ASSUME A COMPANY CAN GO TO ZERO.

MOST IMPORTANT: ALWAYS SELL ON TECHNICALS. NOTHING ELSE MATTERS IF THE CRYPTOCURRENCY HITS YOUR PERSONAL SELL STOPS. Some prefer to sell on weakness, others on strength. A number of these coins will have climax moves so take at least partial profits! This is why the % P/L column shown here is the least important. Pyramiding into winners then selling on climax tops or on clear weakness is key to driving your portfolio higher. Names such as LINK, AAVE, SNX, THETA, LUNA, and RUNE made all the difference to my performance. VSI will not advise on selling in most cases since one's sell point is determined by one's risk tolerance levels, ie, their trading personality. Every investor has unique risk tolerances so some may be more lenient in terms of when to sell, but always obey your sell stops!